24.02.2010 • NewsGlaxoSmithKline (GSK)H1N1Sanofi

Pandemic Has Not Yet Peaked, WHO Experts Advise

The pandemic of H1N1 swine flu has not yet peaked, a committee of experts advised the World Health Organization on Tuesday.

"The committee advised that it was premature to conclude that all parts of the world have experienced peak transmission of the H1N1 pandemic influenza and that additional time and information was needed to provide expert advice on the status of the pandemic," WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said by e-mail.

WHO planned a news conference for Wednesday.

The United Nations agency declared last June that the new virus was causing the first influenza pandemic in more than 40 years after it spread around the world from Mexico and the U.S. in just six weeks. Under WHO rules the emergency committee, composed of 15 experts and headed by Australian John MacKenzie, makes confidential recommendations to WHO director-general Dr. Margaret Chan.

She is then required to inform the health ministries of WHO's 192 member states and the Vatican of her decision. The WHO's decision will be announced formally by the WHO's top flu expert Dr. Keiji Fukuda on Wednesday at 10:00 GMT.

WHO has confirmed the virus has killed 16,000 people but notes this is a gross underestimate, as hardly any patients are diagnosed or tested. It will take a year or two after the pandemic ends to establish the true death toll, the WHO says. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention does projections based on testing and patterns of disease reports and projects that H1N1 has killed up to 17,000 people in the U.S. alone, and put as many as 370,000 into the hospital with serious illness.

In contrast, seasonal influenza kills 250,000 to 500,000 people globally but most are frail and elderly. H1N1 has attacked young adults and children.

Substantial Outbreaks
The pandemic sparked a race to develop new vaccines by drug makers including GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi-Aventis but has proved to be of moderate severity, and many people failed to take the new vaccine.

Previous influenza pandemics have had waves of disease activity spread over months, meaning the post-peak period could last quite a while, according to the WHO. The final stage, called the post-pandemic period, is when disease activity returns to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza, it says.

"There is no on and off switch for a pandemic. It's not a single event. What we have to see is that the behavior of the H1N1 virus becomes like the behavior of other seasonal viruses," Hartl said earlier on Tuesday.

"At the moment, it is still causing substantial outbreaks of disease outside the normal influenza seasons and affecting groups who are not normally affected by seasonal influenza. So as long as that continues, it does not behave like seasonal influenza."

Younger people, especially those with chronic medical conditions, and pregnant women continue to be at a higher risk of infection and viral pneumonia from the H1N1 virus, Fukuda told reporters last week. The WHO has cautioned that the H1N1 virus could still mutate or mix with the more deadly bird flu virus, which remains endemic in poultry in many Asian countries.

Whitepaper

Cannabis Extraction — Temperature Control Systems in Action

Cannabis Extraction — Temperature Control Systems in Action

Cannabis is a crop that has been cultivated for thousands of years and contains many pharmacologically active substances.

Innovation Pitch

The Start-up Platform for Chemistry & Life Sciences

The Start-up Platform for Chemistry & Life Sciences

The tasks range from employee protection, site security and crisis management to IT, OT and production security.

most read

Photo
24.03.2025 • News

Coco Custo – Clean Clothes, Cleaner Ingredients, Clean Sea

The Indian, woman-led startup Coco Custo is pioneering more sustainable cleaning solutions with its biodegradable laundry detergent and other eco-friendly cleaning powders. Formulated primarily from plant-based ingredients and minerals, including organic oils and coconut, Coco Custo’s products are non-toxic, hypoallergenic, and free from harmful chemicals.

Photo
27.03.2025 • News

J&J to Invest $55 Billion in US Operations

US healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson (J&J) has unveiled plans to invest over $55 billion in the US over the next four years. This significant investment marks a 25% increase compared to the previous four years, the company said.

Photo
08.11.2024 • News

Future Prospects in Green Chemistry

The Discourse on Green Chemistry Interactive Pitch Competition, held on November 5, 2024, at Wiley's Berlin office as part of Berlin Science Week, showcased a range of innovative projects aimed at addressing critical environmental challenges.