Germany's opening of its doors next month to a potential influx of hundreds of thousands of workers from newer EU states is unlikely to have much impact on growth or wages except for the lowest earners.

Germany, like neighboring Austria, had opted to protect its job market as long as the European Union allowed, and the two countries will be the last to grant unrestricted entry to workers from newer EU members in Europe's east.

From May 1, citizens of the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia and Slovenia will be free to take jobs without long-term contracts or company sponsorship. But relatively few are expected to come, experts say, and the change should only have minor effects on Germany's economy.

The IAB research institute of Germany's Federal Labor Office expects 100,000 to 140,000 additional workers to arrive annually, mostly from Poland and the Baltic states.

"Surprisingly, the immediate effects will be very minor as a whole ... in the longer-term though, there will be a positive effect on the economy," said IAB director Joachim Moeller.

The Nuremberg-based institute expects the added migration will help Germany's economy to grow an extra 1.5 percentage points by 2020, and have little or no effect on unemployment among Germany's 40 million-strong workforce.

While eastern workers may be willing to accept lower pay, IAB does not expect this to be felt much by Germans themselves as it is the foreigners who will get the smaller pay checks. And with only 0.4 percentage points of downward pressure on wages over the next 10 years, according to IAB's forecasts, the effect is not likely to have a disinflationary impact serious enough to affect monetary policy at the European Central Bank.

The nature of the shift to come on May 1 may best explain why Germany should not expect a tidal wave of new job-seekers. Liberalization will apply mainly to low-skilled workers, as those with special skills needed in Germany are already able to work there on long-term contracts.

Those with higher skill sets will also still have to grapple with the complexities of the German language and difficulties in gaining recognition of foreign professional qualifications. Another reason may be that since 2004, the horizons for Poland's increasingly mobile workforce, many of whom have already lived and worked abroad, have broadened. Many say May 1 will change little for them.

"I'd much rather work in a country that doesn't take half of your salary in taxes, like maybe the United States or even Japan," said Pawel Zakrzewski, 23, a software developer in Szczecin, Poland's closest large city to the German border. "I may move, but Germany is not an option."

Lower Costs
But some are worried that life could soon be tougher for Germany's less-skilled employees.

A study by GfK marketing institute shows almost three-quarters of German employees fear negative effects from the change, with worries most pronounced in the former regions of communist East Germany bordering some of the newer EU lands.

Unions say not enough has been done to prevent undercutting of local employees' wages, despite a recently agreed minimum wage for temporary workers intended to soften the impact. Construction companies have voiced particular concern.

"You don't have to have studied economics to know what it means if more workers and companies arrive offering lower costs," said Frank-Peter Muschiol, who runs a mid-sized construction company in Berlin, some 60 km (40 miles) from the Polish border.

"Of course this will lead to a further strangling of the local building trade," he said, adding that the sector was already facing difficulties because many contractors do not report work to the tax authorities.

Britain's experience with opening its own jobs market suggests that there is potentially room for surprise.

Britain and Ireland were among the first countries to open up their labor markets fully to the newer member states in 2004, and both saw a surge in immigration.

One study for the British House of Lords shows that while initially only up to 13,000 new workers were expected annually between 2004 and 2010, in reality over 765,000 from the eight new EU countries had registered for employment over that period. A flood of immigration could bring a considerable impact for growth. Another study for the British Home Office said immigration had added £6 billion ($9.6 billion) to the economy in 2006, which would imply around a half percentage point of growth in a economy worth over a trillion pounds.

Using data up to November 2005, the study also found no clear statistical evidence that the inflow of eastern migrants had contributed to a rise in unemployment.

Attractive Enough
From the eastern bank of the Oder and Neisse rivers separating Poland and Germany, the grass may indeed look greener on the other side.

Indicators tracking living standards and unemployment suggest Polish workers will face the strongest incentives among easterners to move - despite faster economic growth, Polish joblessness is hovering around 13%, compared to nearly 7% in Germany. Gross domestic product per capita also backs up this theory, as it is nearly twice as high in Germany in purchasing power terms compared to Poland, according to the most recent EU data. The gap is smaller in other eastern EU countries.

Berlin's hope is that lifting entry restrictions will encourage movement by the skilled workers its economy needs - around half a million according to some estimates - and by young people eager for professional training.

Most experts agree the nurses, craftsmen, and hotel and construction workers most likely to make a move will probably head to western Germany where wages are higher and the economy is strongest, or to the capital Berlin, only some 60 km (40 miles) from Poland. But German Labor Minister Ursula von der Leyen hopes training programs will help draw younger candidates to Germany's east, close to Poland, to offset a sinking population in need of youthful momentum.

"We need qualified people - the need is all over Germany but is mostly in the eastern German regions," she told Reuters. "(It is hoped) young people looking for professional training will go to those places."

In the near-term however, it is hard to imagine young Poles flocking to desolate border towns where the economy may not be stronger than in some areas east of the border. And as Poland's economy expands, incentives to move west will diminish. Polish growth is expected to hold at 4% this year and next, while economists expect Germany's economic expansion to slow to just under 2% next year from slightly below 3% in 2011.

German industrial giant Siemens, for example, does not expect many of its Polish workers to see an advantage in moving across the border.

"We think that our employee package is attractive enough," said Kinga Jablonska-Hieronimczuk, a spokeswoman for Siemens Poland in Warsaw. "We do not expect a massive volume will prefer to work in Germany."