Bayer has upped its offer for Monsanto to $127.50 a share, still about $3-4 per share short of the $131-per-share, analysts think the US rival may be holding out for. Monsanto’s immediate response to the latest pill sweetener was a repeat of earlier statements that it is evaluating the Bayer offer as well as proposals from other parties and strategic alternatives.

The new offer is 2% more than Bayer’s last bid and 19% more than Monsanto’s last closing price. Analysts said the latest offer reinforces speculation that Bayer may take a hostile approach if negotiations over the price fail. Some said they see the current offer as a last attempt on the German group’s part to arrange for a negotiated transaction. One, Peter Spengler of DZ Bank, forecast in a note to clients that a deal would likely be completed at $130 to $135 a share.

Another analyst, Jonas Oxgaard of Bernstein, said he thought the transaction had only a 50% chance of winning approval from regulators even if the two sides were to reach an agreement and make divestments. Observers point out that Monsanto may well be as much interested in preserving its independence as it is getting a higher price for its shareholders, which is why a hostile approach might succeed.

The takeover bid by Bayer marks a reversal of roles for the company that is used to being a buyer rather than a seller, as witnessed to by its three attempts to acquire Syngenta. The Swiss company is now being acquired by ChemChina.

Commenting cryptically on the fast-moving M&A carousel in the global agrochemicals sector, BASF Crop Protection President Markus Heldt told journalists attending the segment’s annual press conference the German group is looking at the portfolios of the companies involved in the various deals and considering offering its help to resolve some of the antitrust concerns regulators might raise. Repeated speculation has it that BASF’s agriculture business could be in Monsanto’s crosshairs as it attempts to fend off Bayer.