The Chinese market for colorectal cancer (CRC) treatments will expand almost fourfold in value from an estimated $259 million in 2013 to $1.05 billion by 2023 - a combined annual growth rate of 15% - research and consulting firm GlobalData says in its latest report.

This expansion, the researchers say, will make China the third largest global market for CRC treatment behind the US and Japan. The increased incidence of the disease in the People's Republic is attributed to urbanization, the rising numbers of people covered by private health insurance and improved access to branded biologicals.

At the same time, Fenix Leung, GlobalData's analyst covering oncology and hematology, says growth will be stymied by the patent expiration of Avastin, the leading drug in the Chinese CRC treatment market, and the slower uptake of pipeline therapies.

Leung notes there is often a delay in new drug launches in China compared with the US, Europe and Japan, due to an extended approval process by the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA).

For drugs that have not undergone clinical trials in Chinese patients prior to their application submission, the CFDA can require additional safety studies to be conducted in the country before accepting a registration application.

As nintedanib, Cyramza, and Imprime PGG are pipeline products that have not undergone clinical trials in China, "we do not expect them to launch in this market during the forecast period," Leung adds.

GlobalData predicts the market entry of four additional drugs by 2023. including Zaltrap and Taiho Pharmaceutical's Lonsurf. These agents are expected to have combined revenues of $334 million in 2023 and to represent 32% of the Chinese CRC treatment market.

The analyst predicts that the Bayer drug will be "the clear market leader," with peak-year sales of $291 million in 2023. This will follow its label extension as an adjuvant treatment for CRC patients with resected liver metastases and prior chemotherapy neoadjuvant/adjuvant treatment, he says.